Sales of new iPhone could boost US fourth quarter GDP growth: JP Morgan

Apple’s new iPhone could singlehandedly boost US fourth quarter GDP by between .25% and .5%, according JP Morgan analysts.

JP Morgan’s US chief economist, Michael Feroli, makes the startling prediction in a report titled Can one little phone impact GDP?, as republished by Apple Insider, based on the assumed price without subsidy of $US600 and a $US200 per phone increase in imports, leading to $US400 growth in GDP per device sold.

“Our equity analysts believe around 8 million iPhone 5’s will be sold in the US in Q4, even while sales of previous generation iPhones are maintained at a solid pace,” says Feroli.

“Calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $US3.2 billion, or $US12.8 billion at an annual rate. This would boost annualized GDP growth in Q4 by 0.33%-point.”

“The third of a percentage point lift would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth projection, which remains 2.0%.”