Christmas 2011: More online than ever before

September is over and we are moving into Christmas 2011 and New Year 2012. So I think it is time for a little prophesising, future seeing and prescience.

Well, educated guess-work at least.

Those of you who have read this blog for the past three years will know that I walk stores and observe in the FEBA (the “Forward Edge of the Battle Area”), to try to see through the “Fog of War” to understand what is happening across retail. Since September last year, I have also been looking at online offers and statistics out of the US, Europe and ANZ to try to better understand how that new sector is performing.

My shortlist of predictions for retailing over the next three months looks like this:

• We will, after four years of saving, begin to spend again.
• My inbox, and yours, will have 10 to 20 online shopping offers coming in per week.
• Everything that we like about our favourite Australian and New Zealand retail stores is now available via the online shopping experience, which many of us will use at Christmas for the first time this year.
• Online retailing will grow by more than 50% year-on-year in the US, and on “Cyber Monday” (November 26), the Monday after the US Thanksgiving weekend, it will total over US$1.5 billion in that single 24 hour period.
• 50% of these online sales will be via the online shopping portal of the top 10 traditional retailers.
• In Australia and New Zealand online sales will grow by more than 60% as we play catch up with Europe and the US. Around 30% of these sales will come from foreign  retail sites.
• Zara in Australia will have days when they sell more product via the website than it sells through its stores.
• Post Christmas and New Year sales online will be identical in their depth and nature as traditional bricks and mortar store clearance sales. This is because online retailers will use the same stock liquidation methods as their traditional store competitors.
• The value proposition at retail will be better than it has ever been for Australian and New Zealand shoppers, with genuine price drops through the year leading to greater buying power for each dollar we spend.
• Margins for retailers will improve over last year.
• Smartphones and tablets will still be at the top of the Christmas list, as must have items for the second year running. However, online media, music and video consumption will grow faster than in any previous year.
• Australia Post will have the largest Christmas package volume in its history and its network may even struggle to keep up with the package volumes placed upon it.

None of the statistics listed above differ significantly from anything we have experienced over the past 16 months, except the acceleration of some of these trends.

In 2012, retailers worldwide will be much better prepared for online sales in the key Christmas and gift giving season than ever before. Many will reap the benefits of the hard work they have put in to shaping and re-shaping their business models and shopper offers.

All in all Christmas in 2011 will be good  for those who have learned and applied good online retailing to their core store based businesses over the past year.

In his role as CEO of CROSSMARK, Kevin Moore looks at the world of retailing from grocery to pharmacy, bottle shops to car dealers, corner store to department stores. In this insightful blog, Kevin covers retail news, ideas, companies and emerging opportunities in Australia, NZ, the US and Europe. His international career in sales and marketing has seen him responsible for business in over 40 countries, which has earned him grey hair and a wealth of expertise in international retailers and brands. CROSSMARK Asia Pacific is Australasia’s largest provider of retail marketing services, consulting to and servicing some of Australasia’s biggest retailers and manufacturers.