Business conditions improve in November, NAB tips unemployment to fall to 4.8%

Business conditions improved in November, National Australia Bank says, as it lifts its local growth forecasts and tips unemployment will fall to 4.8%.

The bank’s monthly business survey finds that all service sectors except finance recorded increases last month.

“With the exception of trading conditions, all of the survey indicators improved in the month, with increases in forward orders, stocks, employment and capacity utilisation suggestive of improved economic activity,” the bank said.

“Mining, transport and utilities, and retail conditions were also noticeably stronger. In contrast, conditions deteriorated heavily in construction in November, while manufacturing conditions also deteriorated in the month; conditions were worryingly weak in both sectors.”

Business conditions edged up to one last month, from zero the month before, and confidence was steady at two.

Citing improved business conditions, strong national accounts data and firm consumption growth, NAB has lifted its Australian growth forecasts to 3.7% in 2011-12, edging up to 3.8% the year after.

It tips the Reserve Bank and Treasury will follow suit with more bullish forecasts, after official figures showed Australian GDP grew by 1% in the September quarter, following a 1.4% rise in the previous quarter and taking the annual rise to 2.5%.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster says although the bank is less optimistic for the global economy – tipping global growth of 3.3% in 2012, down from 3.8% this year – Australia’s strong relationship with China and the GDP figures underpin its optimism on the local economy.

Private consumption forecasts have been lifted to 3.8% for 2011-12, and domestic demand for the year is put at 5.2%.

Crucially, it expects unemployment to fall to 4.8% for the two years to 2012-13 – putting it at odds with Westpac, which has tipped unemployment to reach as high as 5.7% through mid-2012.

Oster says the prospect of a global European recession doesn’t worry him nearly so much as a banking crisis, but Australia should be insulated to some extent by its trading relationship with China, as well as recent strength in the domestic economy.

NAB says Reserve Bank’s decision to lower the cash rate this month, for the second consecutive month, “reflected caution overruling prudence”.

“Australian business conditions rose marginally in November, implying underlying annualised growth (ex-mining) of around 3.25-.3.5% in Q4. National accounts data heralded the start of the long-awaited mining investment boom, while consumption growth remains firm,” it says.

“We see these components (in particular) supporting further growth in the Australian economy. Our GDP forecasts have been strengthened to reflect stronger consumption and investment growth.”

It expects core inflation to rise over the next few years, but tentatively tips another rate cut in February.

Westpac last week reiterated its forecast for further rate cuts, which would “provide a boost to conditions in the broader economy” and should see a “more even economic expansion emerge through 2012, such that the labour market improves later in the year and the unemployment rate begins to stabilise at a peak similar to that in 2009”.