Auction clearances steady, but property stock levels surge

The property market is gearing up for an important test next weekend, with a spike in auction numbers and a surge in the number of properties on the market worrying some commentators.

SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher released figures last week showing the number of residential properties advertised in Australia rose by 13,100 or 3.8% for the month of March.

He says there are now a total of 356,600 residential properties being advertised online, up from 241,700 last year – a worrying 47.5% increase over 12 months.

“Seasonally we always get this big lift in auction listings, so it’s no great surprise that we’re seeing this seasonal surge in activity and often see clearance rates being a bit lower because of it,” he says.

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria reported a 61% clearance rate for the weekend just gone, which was lower than comparable periods over the past five years, but one percentage point higher than the previous week.

Stock numbers were well up on this time last year, REIV says.

“There was a total of 872 auctions reported this weekend of which 536 sold and 340 passed in, 237 of those on a vendors bid,” REIV chief Enzo Raimondo says.

Australian Property Monitors says Sydney recorded a 53% clearance rate, with 246 properties sold out of 410 on offer. Fifty-eight properties were withdrawn. The median price was $810,000, and total sales reached $214,288,400.

Adelaide, meanwhile, had a clearance rate of 45%, with 18 out of 38 properties sold on Saturday. Two were withdrawn. The median price was $541,000, with total sales equalling $9,631,500.

The REIV expects 1,000 auctions next weekend, with Raimondo saying there “appears to be enough buyers in the market to meet the higher stock levels in the lead-up to Easter”.

But not all are upbeat and poor housing finance figures for February have left many concerned.

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM research, said the official figures showing a biggest monthly fall in home loans in 14 years was “serious” stuff.

“We’re tipping that given what’s happened to housing finance approvals over the past couple of months this year, it’s likely we’ll see capital city house price falls of 5% for the calendar year,” Christopher says.

He expects Sydney to outperform, with a question mark hanging over Melbourne.

“We’re not talking about a collapse by any means except for South East Queensland, but it’s still going to be a downturn that’s in the market.”

“Indeed, demand for housing is now weaker than back in the second half of 2008; a point where house prices fell by 5% as an average for the eight capital cities around the country.”

Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics has tipped just “modest” price gains for the Australian property market, according to Bloomberg.

“Australia’s housing market has lost momentum, and although demand should improve, house price gains will be modest,” Moody’s Analytics economist Matthew Circosta was quoted as saying.

“Auction clearance rates, although improving, have failed to breach an average 60% in recent weeks and sit well below the 80% recorded in mid-2010.”