Job ads leap by 19% in February: ANZ

The number of job advertisements posted on the internet and in metropolitan newspapers grew by a massive 19.1% in February to an average of 159,778 per week, the latest ANZ index shows, equating to the biggest monthly percentage jump in 11 years.

However, the result comes after an 8% drop in January and is still well below the all-time high, economist Warren Hogan said in a statement.

The results show February’s job ads were just 2.3% lower than the same month in 2009, compared to 26% lower in January. Total job ads are 27.5% higher than the low point in July 2009 at 125,258 ads, but are still 42.6% below the all-time peak in April 2008.

The number of job advertisements in newspapers grew by 13.1% to 9,947 per week in February, reversing the 16.6% decline in January. Newspaper ads are 14.9% higher than in February 2009.

In trend terms, job ads grew by just 1.1%, the weakest monthly growth since 2009, but in annual trend growth rate terms ads improved by 7% – the first positive annual trend growth since December 2007.

All states and territories recorded seasonally adjusted increases except Queensland, which recorded another fall of 6.3%. The biggest growth was in Western Australia at 22%, followed by South Australia and Victoria at 19.5% and 19.3% respectively.

The number of internet job ads grew by 19.6% in February to an average of 149,831 per week. While this is 3.3% lower than in February 2009, it is 27.9% above the low point in July 2009.

Hogan said the results show January’s record of a decline was a seasonal anomaly, and that total job ads are continuing to improve month-on-month. He noted that total employment reached a record high of 10.9 million jobs in January, and that 194,600 jobs have been added to the market over the last five months.

Even better, the unemployment rate has now been falling since it peaked at 5.8% in June and July 2009. This peak was well below the 6%+ unemployment rates that were widely feared earlier this year. We expect the unemployment rate will ease down from here.

However, he also points out that 30.2% of jobs are now part-time, and that aggregate hours worked across the economy remain at the same level as one year ago, indicating under-employment still exists.

However, Hogan said forward indicators appear positive for more employment growth during the next few months, with business investment improving, indicating a steady unemployment reading of 5.3% on Thursday when official figures are released.

“With the labour force now growing by an average of 30,000 per month (average for the last five months), we will need to see net jobs growth of at least 30,000 in February in order to see a further immediate improvement in the number of unemployed or to move the unemployment rate from its current 5.3% (seas. adj.).”

Given the recent stellar performance of the labour market and the positive nature of “current forward indicators of labour demand, we expect Australia can achieve 30,000 net new jobs this month. This would keep the unemployment rate stable at 5.3%”.