Population growth good news for the downturn

The country’s population has now reached 21.5 million people, after experiencing a record increase during 2008 due to higher birth rates and migrant intakes.

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the population rose by 390,000 to 21.5 million. Population growth has only exceeded 300,000 a year in the last two years.

The country also experienced the highest growth rate since 1970 at 1.84%, and has nearly reached the replacement rate.

The ABS also says that over 60% of the population growth comes from migration, with the number of those living here at least 12 months growing 33.5% over the last year to 325,000 – more than double the rate from four years ago.

The majority of the population growth was felt in Western Australia, which recorded population growth of 2.9%, followed by Queensland at 2.5% and the Northern Territory at 2.2%. Tasmania posted the lowest growth rate at just 0.9%.

Commonwealth Bank equities economist Savanth Sebastian says the population growth is “good news” for the downturn, and claims the benefits are really “a stimulus on their own”.

“If you had a choice in a recession, the last thing you want is for the population to be falling away as well. A strong population and population growth means that there is a lot more demand in terms of retail sales and infrastructure and government spending.

“It puts a lot of demand on infrastructure. This boom in population and migration adds to that excess capacity and in the longer run, wage growth will remain stable you’ve got a lot more migrants in the country and have a larger labour force.”

Sebastian also says the growth will put immediate pressure on the economy, and that continued programs for increasing migration levels should help even more.

“Over 60% of growth was from migrants, and that adds to the demand on housing. Vacancy rates are at record lows, interest rates are low, it helps to ensure that rents remain strong and that property prices will not crumble.

“If you are a migrant you need housing or rental properties quite immediately, and that is going to put continued pressure on the market.”

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