Tony Abbot’s best hope of winning the election is a better climate change plan: Gottliebsen

In the flurry of debate over the Rudd/Turnbull emissions trading scheme, next week’s global conference at Copenhagen will now be an anticlimax.

Accordingly, those that expect that we are going to see a world agreement at this conference are going to be disappointed. Rather, Copenhagen will accelerate the forces for global agreement and make it easier for world leaders to take their populations with them.

It is now clear that President Obama plans US leadership in climate change and he is advocating policies that will not destroy the world economy. Given that looming American leadership, I am basing this commentary on detailed research on what is likely at Copenhagen by Abbey Cohen and Amy Semaya from Goldman Sachs in New York .

According to Cohen and Semaya, it is likely that the Copenhagen discussions will result in a more specific timeline for the next comprehensive international agreement on climate change. An understanding between the United States and China is a critical precursor to a global agreement and that has not yet been achieved, although progress may have been made last month. Nor has a consensus been reached with regard to the assistance to be provided to poor developing nations.

Nevertheless many countries have been working to implement domestic climate change programs prior to the meeting in Copenhagen. President Obama is putting forward US emissions reductions in the range of 17 per cent below 2005 levels in 2020 and 83 per cent by 2050. These reductions are consistent with the reduction levels proposed in the legislation passed in the US House of Representatives and the reductions currently being debated in the Senate. Significantly for Australia, the US is proposing an ETS, but it is a much milder version of the Rudd/Turnbull scheme that was yesterday rejected by the Senate.

Conversely, the EU and Japan have announced their willingness to pledge to the highest CO2 emissions reductions in the world.

Among the other international developments, China has for the first time agreed to enforce a cap on carbon emissions and has reiterated its focus on improving energy efficiency. If Tony Abbott wants to achieve the required level of emissions cuts that are likely to emerge from Copenhagen and is not prepared to follow the US in a sensible emissions trading scheme, then he must follow the China model of improving energy generation efficiency using gas and probably nuclear.

Although the Indian government has stated it will not agree to set emissions reduction targets, India has been increasing its forest cover annually helping to neutralize emissions. Brazil announced plans to continue its efforts to reduce Amazon deforestation.

The domestic-level climate change policy progress made around the world will help ensure the discussions in Copenhagen are productive.

Australia is one of the worst placed nations to meet the required emissions reduction levels likely to emerge in Copenhagen because we don’t have nuclear power and we have large coal exports. Nevertheless, if we work closely with China, the US and Canada, we can give firm undertakings that match our peers significantly. But in Australia, climate legislation will be decided via the ballot box.

Later in 2010, Australia will have an election where the Rudd/Turnbull ETS plan will be pitched against what Tony Abbott comes up with. If Abbott comes up with a better plan to achieve globally competitive carbon reduction, he will achieve a level of support at the election greater than anyone could currently conceive.

This article first appeared on Business Spectator